Davenport, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

047
FXUS63 KDVN 131040
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
540 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...12 Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More seasonable and not as humid conditions still on track through
  Thursday.

- Heat and humidity to build back Friday and into the weekend,
  with precipitation chances increasing Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Today...A passing ridge of LLVL high pressure and weak west-
northwesterlies aloft will ensure a nice mid August day, with highs
generally in the lower 80s. While ongoing plant and crop evapo-
transpiration(especially beans) along with wet ground evaporation
itself will battle the process, advection of upstream drier sfc
DPTs should make for values in the mid 60s today. We`d have DPTs in
the 50s if it were`nt for the evapo-processes. Also expect plenty of
ambient/cellular cumulus cloud formation as the day progresses
according to CU rule parameters, possibly to broken coverage but not
enough to ruin a mostly sunny fcst. Light north winds of 5-10 MPH.

Tonight...Mainly clear with a cool down into the low 60s to even
upper 50s by Thu morning under sharpening shallow inversion. Am a
bit uncertain about fog tonight, but some chance for reaching the
cross-over temps and sfc winds trending calm under the de-coupling
shallow inversion. But also have to keep the diurnal drying of the
sfc today and the lower DPT advection in mind as agents against
widespread fog formation. Will just go with patchy fog mention after
midnight for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Thursday and Friday...Another decent day Thursday with lowered
humidity and seasonable temps in the low to mid 80s. Latest ensemble
trends suggest upstream thermal ridge organizing acrs the plains and
MO RVR Valley, starting to adjust the storm track back acrs the
northwest high plains and over to the GR LKS into the weekend. In
the transition, just a low chance for some storm activity or at
least decaying debris into the northern CWA Thu night into Friday
morning. But will keep it dry for now with some uncertainty on this
potential. Friday the ridge adjusts this way with a good warm up and
increasing LLVL moisture/DPT feed. Highs ranging from the mid 80s
north to around 90 south, and heat index readings well up in the 90s.

Saturday and Sunday...Latest suite of ensemble runs and mass
field/upper jet placement suggest brunt of the thermal ridge to be
adjusted acrs the region and the ring of fire shunted to the north
acrs the plains into the GRT LKS. We may be hot and capped/EML
dominant these days making the way for the potential need for heat
headlines, especially Sat where we are currently advertising Heat
Index readings in the triple digits. If Sunday stays dry and mainly
cloud free, triple digit HI`s may also be reached in places. Some
chance for MCS busting down the ridge and making it into the area
from the north Sunday night into Monday morning, but the latest
ensembles have trended later with that process into early next week.

Monday and Tuesday...A potentially volatile period with the thermal
ridge break down and storm track shifting down acrs the local area
in a pattern flux. This may open the area to rounds of storms or MCS
type systems through at least Tuesday, before we can get into a
cooler and less humid pattern by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A ridge of high pressure will make for a mainly VFR TAF cycle
today into Thursday morning, with north to northwest sfc winds
of 4-8 KTs. There should be some ambient cellular CU
development by afternoon, but expect the bases to be at VFR
levels by the time they may become BKN in coverage. With light
to calm sfc winds and clear skies late tonight, will have to
watch for at least some MVFR fog creeping into the VCNTY of the
TAF sites, if even in shallow ground fog form.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12